4-Week Bill Rate Falls 5 bps to 4.12% (Oct 16, 2026)

The short end of the Treasury market eased back on October 16, 2026, with the 4-week Treasury bill slipping to 4.12 percent from 4.17 percent on Thursday, though it remains essentially flat with last Friday's 4.13 percent. The 6-week bill sits at 4.14 percent, a penny lower on the day and just above its level of a week ago, while the 2-month bill fell to 4.17 percent from 4.19 percent. Those bills are still higher than they were 30 days ago, when the 4-week yielded 3.96 percent. The 30-year Treasury yield, by contrast, held steady at 5.43 percent for a second straight session.

Across the rest of the curve, most maturities ticked lower on the day but remain below where they stood last week. The 2-year Treasury rate is at 4.74 percent, down from 4.80 percent a week ago, and the 10-year Treasury rate slipped to 5.09 percent from 5.24 percent over the same span. The 5-year and 7-year notes also retreated, standing at 4.89 percent and 4.98 percent respectively. The 20-year bond, at 5.47 percent, is 18 basis points... it is simply lower than last week's 5.65 percent, as is the 30-year, which has fallen from 5.60 percent.

Compared with 30 days ago, the moves are more mixed. Bills and short notes are up noticeably, with the 4-week bill higher by 16 hundredths of a percent and the 3-month bill up from 4.14 percent to 4.26 percent. Longer maturities have climbed as well: the 10-year Treasury rate has risen from 5.01 percent to 5.09 percent, and the 30-year Treasury yield has advanced from 5.35 percent to 5.43 percent. Against one year ago, today's 10-year is well above the 3.99 percent recorded on October 16, 2025, and the 30-year stands far higher than its year-ago 4.58 percent.

The Treasury yield curve remains inverted at the long end, with the 30-year at 5.43 percent sitting below the 20-year at 5.47 percent, the same relationship as last week. Thirty days ago the 30-year also yielded less than the 20-year, so that inversion has persisted throughout the month. Elsewhere the curve slopes upward, with the 4-week bill at 4.12 percent well below the 10-year at 5.09 percent. The gap between the 2-year Treasury rate and the 10-year Treasury rate stands at 35 hundredths of a percent, wider than the 44-hundredths spread... narrower than last week's 44-hundredths spread and unchanged from 30 days ago.