Treasury Yield Curve Analysis — October 6, 2026

Rates have climbed sharply over the past month, with the 2-year Treasury rate up from 4.17 percent to 4.79 percent, the 10-year Treasury rate rising from 4.64 percent to 5.27 percent, and the 30-year Treasury yield moving from 5.17 percent to 5.64 percent. As of Tuesday, October 6, 2026, the 30-year Treasury yield stands at 5.64 percent, five hundredths higher than last week's 5.59 percent. The 10-year Treasury rate sits at 5.27 percent, a penny above its level one week ago. Shorter maturities have also edged higher on the week, with the 2-year Treasury rate down slightly from 4.89 percent to 4.79 percent.

Looking across the full curve compared to 30 days ago, the moves have been substantial at every maturity. The 4-week bill rose from 3.79 percent to 4.06 percent, while the 6-month rate climbed from 3.95 percent to 4.28 percent. The 1-year rate advanced from 4.01 percent to 4.46 percent, and the 5-year rate jumped from 4.35 percent to 5.03 percent. The 20-year rate moved from 5.16 percent to 5.68 percent, the largest monthly gain on the curve.

On a weekly basis, the changes are far more modest. The 3-year rate slipped from 4.98 percent to 4.88 percent, and the 5-year rate eased from 5.06 percent to 5.03 percent. The 7-year rate dipped a hundredth to 5.15 percent, while the 20-year rate ticked up from 5.64 percent to 5.68 percent. Bills were mixed, with the 4-week rate a hundredth higher at 4.06 percent and the 6-week rate four hundredths lower at 4.12 percent.

Measured against one year ago, today's 10-year Treasury rate of 5.27 percent is well above the 4.18 percent recorded on October 6, 2025, and the 30-year Treasury yield of 5.64 percent compares with 4.76 percent then. The Treasury yield curve remains inverted at the long end, with the 20-year rate at 5.68 percent sitting above the 30-year rate of 5.64 percent. That inversion was also present last week, when the 20-year rate of 5.64 percent exceeded the 30-year rate of 5.59 percent, and 30 days ago, when the 20-year rate of 5.16 percent topped the 30-year rate of 5.17 percent by a single hundredth. Elsewhere, the curve slopes upward from bills through the 20-year maturity.