Treasury Yield Curve Analysis — September 30, 2026

On September 30, 2026, the 10-year Treasury rate stands at 5.29 percent, well above the 4.16 percent recorded one year ago, while the 30-year Treasury yield of 5.64 percent is also far higher than last year's 4.73 percent. Compared with a week ago, the 30-year yield has climbed from 5.40 percent, a gain of 24 hundredths over five sessions. The 10-year rate has risen even faster on a weekly basis, moving up from 5.11 percent last Wednesday. Long-term rates have clearly been the center of activity in recent sessions.

A year-over-year view across the rest of the curve shows the same pattern of higher rates at every maturity. The 2-year Treasury rate of 4.88 percent sits well above the 3.60 percent level of September 2025, and the 1-year rate of 4.54 percent compares with 3.68 percent a year ago. Over the past week, the gains have been largest in the middle and long end, with the 5-year up from 4.99 to 5.09 percent and the 7-year rising from 5.05 to 5.19 percent. Shorter maturities barely moved, as the 4-week bill ticked up from 3.99 to 4.02 percent.

Looking at the past month, the increases have been substantial from the front of the curve through the long end. The 2-year Treasury rate has jumped from 4.19 percent on August 19 to 4.88 percent today, while the 10-year rate climbed from 4.65 to 5.29 percent over the same span. The 30-year Treasury yield rose from 5.19 to 5.64 percent in that month, and the 20-year advanced from 5.17 to 5.68 percent. Even the 4-week bill is higher, up from 3.77 percent thirty days ago.

The Treasury yield curve remains upward sloping from the 4-week bill at 4.02 percent through the 20-year at 5.68 percent. One inversion is present at the long end, where the 30-year yield of 5.64 percent sits below the 20-year rate of 5.68 percent. A week ago the same pattern held, with the 30-year at 5.40 percent under the 20-year at 5.45 percent, and thirty days ago the 30-year yield of 5.19 percent was also slightly above the 20-year's 5.17 percent. Elsewhere, the curve rises steadily across every maturity from one month out to twenty years.