Treasury Yield Curve Analysis — September 28, 2026

The Treasury yield curve on Monday, September 28, 2026, is steepest across its long end, with the 20-year maturity at 5.60 percent standing above every other point on the curve. The 30-year Treasury yield sits just below at 5.56 percent, leaving a small inversion between the 20-year and 30-year maturities. The flattest section runs from the 5-year at 5.06 percent through the 10-year at 5.24 percent and out to the 30-year, where gaps between neighboring maturities narrow considerably. At the short end, the 4-week yield of 4.04 percent sits well below the 2-year Treasury rate of 4.92 percent, making the front portion of the curve the steepest climb on a maturity-to-maturity basis.

Rates rose across the board compared with last week, lifting the entire Treasury yield curve higher. The 10-year Treasury rate climbed to 5.24 percent from 4.96 percent a week ago, while the 30-year Treasury yield moved up from 5.29 percent to 5.56 percent. Shorter maturities also advanced, with the 2-year Treasury rate rising from 4.76 percent to 4.92 percent and the 1-year moving from 4.45 percent to 4.59 percent. The 4-week yield ticked up from 3.96 percent to 4.04 percent, the smallest gain on the curve.

Over the past month, increases have been largest in the middle of the curve. The 2-year Treasury rate has jumped from 4.19 percent on August 17 to 4.92 percent today, and the 10-year Treasury rate rose from 4.72 percent to 5.24 percent. The long end moved less, with the 30-year Treasury yield up from 5.31 percent to 5.56 percent and the 20-year up from 5.30 percent to 5.60 percent. Compared with one year ago, today's 10-year rate is higher than the 4.20 percent recorded in late September 2025, and the 30-year Treasury yield stands above last year's 4.77 percent.

The shape of the curve has shifted in notable ways over both horizons. A week ago, the 20-year at 5.33 percent already exceeded the 30-year at 5.29 percent, so the inversion between those two maturities has persisted and widened slightly, from 4 hundredths to the current gap. Thirty days ago the same inversion existed, with the 20-year at 5.30 percent above the 30-year at 5.31 percent by a single hundredth, and it now stands at 4 hundredths. Elsewhere, the curve remains upward sloping from the 4-week maturity all the way through the 20-year, both versus last week and versus a month ago.