Treasury Yield Curve Analysis — September 29, 2026

The 20-year Treasury rate posted the largest weekly gain, rising to 5.64 percent from 5.33 percent last week. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.59 percent, up from 5.29 percent seven days ago. Longer maturities generally led the advance, with the 10-year Treasury rate reaching 5.26 percent after sitting at 4.96 percent last Tuesday. Every maturity on the Treasury yield curve closed higher than it did a week ago.

Gains shrank steadily toward the front end of the curve. The 7-year rate added 27 hundredths to reach 5.16 percent, and the 5-year rose to 5.06 percent from 4.83 percent. The 2-year Treasury rate moved up to 4.89 percent from 4.71 percent, while the 3-year and 1-year also advanced. At the shortest end, the 4-week bill ticked up only slightly to 4.04 percent, and the 4-month rate rose just 4 hundredths to 4.30 percent, making it the smallest mover of the session.

Compared with a month ago, the middle of the curve shows the biggest changes. The 2-year rate stands 70 hundredths higher than its August level of 4.19 percent, and the 10-year has climbed from 4.71 percent to 5.26 percent. The long end has moved less, with the 30-year up 31 hundredths from 5.28 percent and the 20-year up 36 hundredths from 5.28 percent. Against one year ago, today's 10-year rate is well above the 4.15 percent recorded last September, and the 30-year yield sits higher than its year-ago level of 4.71 percent.

The Treasury yield curve slopes upward across most maturities, from 4.04 percent at the 4-week bill to 5.26 percent at 10 years. The one exception sits at the long end, where the 20-year rate of 5.64 percent exceeds the 30-year yield of 5.59 percent. That 20-year over 30-year inversion was also present last week, when the rates stood at 5.33 and 5.29 percent. Thirty days ago the two maturities both yielded 5.28 percent, leaving no gap between them.