Treasury Yield Curve Analysis — September 25, 2026

The middle of the Treasury curve moved lower on September 25, 2026, with the 2-year Treasury rate at 4.81 percent, the 3-year at 4.94 percent, the 5-year at 4.98 percent, and the 7-year at 5.06 percent. The 10-year Treasury rate stands at 5.17 percent, down from 5.18 percent on Thursday. Compared with a week ago, the belly of the curve is notably higher, as the 2-year has climbed from 4.76 percent and the 10-year has risen from 5.01 percent. The 30-year Treasury yield sits at 5.49 percent, up from 5.34 percent last Friday.

Across the rest of the curve, shorter maturities also rose over the week. The 4-week bill went from 3.97 percent to 4.04 percent, and the 1-year moved from 4.44 percent to 4.50 percent. The 3-year and 5-year each gained ground as well, while the 20-year advanced from 5.38 percent to 5.54 percent, the largest weekly increase of any maturity shown. Only the 30-year lagged slightly behind the 20-year in level, sitting below it on the curve.

Over the past month, the entire structure has shifted upward in a pronounced way. The 2-year Treasury rate has jumped from 4.17 percent on August 14 to 4.81 percent, and the 10-year has climbed from 4.68 percent to 5.17 percent. The long end participated as well, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising from 5.25 percent to 5.49 percent and the 20-year moving from 5.25 percent to 5.54 percent. Against one year ago, today's 10-year rate is higher by a wide margin, 5.17 percent versus 4.18 percent, and the 30-year at 5.49 percent also stands well above its 4.75 percent level of September 25, 2025.

The Treasury yield curve remains upward sloping from the front end through the 20-year point. The 20-year, at 5.54 percent, sits above the 30-year, at 5.49 percent, a relationship that held on Thursday and last week as well, when the 20-year was at 5.53 percent and 5.38 percent respectively against 30-year levels of 5.47 percent and 5.34 percent. Thirty days ago the same pattern was present, with the 20-year at 5.25 percent matching the 30-year at 5.25 percent before edging above it in the weeks since. No inversions appear anywhere on the curve in today's data, and none were present last week or a month ago.