Treasury Yield Curve Analysis — October 1, 2026

The 30-year Treasury yield stands at 5.61 percent on Thursday, October 1, 2026, down from 5.64 percent yesterday but higher than the 5.47 percent recorded one week ago. The 20-year Treasury yield sits at 5.64 percent, also lower on the day after finishing last week at 5.53 percent. The long end of the curve has climbed steadily over the past several sessions, with the 30-year yield adding 14 hundredths of a percent since last Thursday.

Across the rest of the Treasury yield curve, shorter maturities slipped modestly compared with a week ago. The 2-year Treasury rate is at 4.78 percent, down from 4.87 percent last Thursday, and the 3-year yield eased to 4.91 percent from 4.99 percent. Longer intermediate tenors moved the other way, as the 10-year Treasury rate rose to 5.24 percent from 5.18 percent and the 5-year yield ticked up to 5.01 percent from 5.03 percent after dipping midweek. The 1-year yield fell to 4.44 percent from 4.51 percent.

Over the past month, the entire curve has shifted higher in a pronounced way. The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed 38 hundredths of a percent from 5.23 percent on August 20, while the 20-year yield is up 44 hundredths from 5.20 percent. The 10-year Treasury rate has risen 55 hundredths from 4.69 percent, and the 2-year Treasury rate is 59 hundredths higher than its month-ago level of 4.19 percent. Compared with one year ago, today's 10-year yield is well above the 4.12 percent recorded on October 1, 2025, and the 30-year yield stands 89 hundredths higher than last year's 4.72 percent.

The Treasury yield curve remains upward sloping from the front end through 20 years, with the 20-year yield at 5.64 percent sitting above the 30-year yield at 5.61 percent. This slight inversion at the long end was also present yesterday, when the 20-year yielded 5.68 percent against 5.64 percent on the 30-year. A month ago the same pattern held, with the 20-year at 5.20 percent exceeding the 30-year at 5.23 percent by a small margin. Elsewhere the curve slopes upward throughout, from the 4-week yield of 4.06 percent to the 20-year peak.