Treasury Yield Curve Analysis — October 2, 2026

The 4-week Treasury bill rate sits at 4.04% on Friday, October 2, 2026, unchanged from a week ago, while the 6-week bill slipped to 4.09% from 4.14% and the 2-month bill fell to 4.11% from 4.20%. The short end of the curve has been drifting lower over recent sessions, with the 2-month rate down 2 basis points from Thursday's 4.13%. Bills remain well above where they stood a month ago, when the 4-week rate was at 3.80%.

Farther out the front end, the 3-month rate eased to 4.19% from 4.24% last week, and the 6-month rate slipped to 4.27% from 4.33%. The 1-year Treasury rate dipped to 4.46% from 4.50%. The 2-year Treasury rate edged up to 4.83% from 4.81%, while the 5-year rate climbed to 5.06% from 4.98%. Longer maturities moved more sharply, with the 10-year Treasury rate rising to 5.28% from 5.17% and the 30-year Treasury yield advancing to 5.63% from 5.49%.

Compared with 30 days ago, the entire curve is substantially higher. The 4-week rate is up 24 hundredths from 3.80%, and the 6-week bill has jumped 32 hundredths from 3.77%. The 2-year Treasury rate has surged 59 hundredths from 4.24%, and the 10-year Treasury rate is up 54 hundredths from 4.74%. Against one year ago, today's 10-year rate of 5.28% stands well above the 4.10% recorded on October 2, 2025, and the 30-year Treasury yield of 5.63% is far above last year's 4.69%.

The Treasury yield curve remains inverted at the long end, with the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.63% sitting below the 20-year rate of 5.67%. That 20-year versus 30-year inversion was also present last week, when the 20-year stood at 5.54% against a 30-year of 5.49%. Thirty days ago the same pattern held, with the 20-year at 5.25% and the 30-year at 5.27%. Elsewhere the curve slopes upward, with the 4-week bill at 4.04% rising steadily to the 10-year at 5.28%.