Treasury Yield Curve Analysis — October 5, 2026

The 10-year Treasury rate stands at 5.31 percent today, October 5, 2026, a full 1.18 points higher than the 4.13 percent recorded one year ago. The 30-year Treasury yield tells a similar story, sitting at 5.66 percent versus 4.71 percent a year ago, a rise of 0.95 points. Compared with last Monday, the 30-year yield is up 0.10 points from 5.56 percent, while the 10-year rate has climbed 0.07 points from 5.24 percent. Both long-end benchmarks also edged higher from Friday's levels.

Year over year, the increases stretch across the entire Treasury yield curve, though the gains are far larger at the long end. The 2-year Treasury rate, at 4.84 percent today, is 1.26 points above its year-ago level of 3.58 percent, the biggest jump of any maturity shown. Shorter bills have moved much less: the 4-week rate of 4.05 percent is actually lower than the 4.24 percent of one year ago. Against last week, most maturities are modestly higher, with the 6-month bill up 0.11 points to 4.30 percent and the 20-year up 0.10 points to 5.70 percent, while the 4-week rate is unchanged.

Looking back over the past 30 days, rates have risen sharply at every point on the curve. The 10-year Treasury rate has jumped 0.61 points from 4.70 percent on August 24, and the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed 0.43 points from 5.23 percent. The front end has moved even more in relative terms, with the 4-week bill up 0.26 points from 3.79 percent and the 1-year up 0.43 points from 4.04 percent. Relative to one year ago, today's 20-year rate of 5.70 percent is 1.01 points higher than the 4.69 percent of October 2025.

The Treasury yield curve remains upward sloping from the front end through the 20-year maturity, with the 20-year at 5.70 percent topping the curve. The 30-year Treasury yield, at 5.66 percent, sits below the 20-year rate, a gap of 0.04 points that was also present last week, when the two stood at 5.60 and 5.56 percent. Thirty days ago the same relationship held, with the 20-year at 5.21 percent and the 30-year at 5.23 percent, a smaller 0.02-point difference. No part of the curve is inverted today, a contrast with one year ago, when the 2-year rate of 3.58 percent sat below the 4-week rate of 4.24 percent.