Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield finished at 5.06 today, up from 5.05 on Thursday. Since the July 4th holiday means there was no trading data for last Friday, the most recent comparable was Thursday of this week. The 20-year rate sits slightly higher at 5.08, and the 10-year came in at 4.56. These long-term rates remain the highest across the entire curve.

Looking at the broader yield curve, rates moved higher across nearly all maturities compared to Thursday. The 3-year climbed to 4.22 from 4.18, the 2-year rose to 4.21 from 4.16, and the 5-year reached 4.30 versus 4.27. Shorter-term rates also ticked up, with the 1-year at 4.06, the 6-month at 3.99, and the 3-month at 3.85. The entire curve from the 2-year through the 30-year sits above 4.20.

Over the past month, rates have shifted higher across all maturities. The 30-year is now at 5.06 compared to 4.99 one month ago, and the 10-year has climbed to 4.56 from 4.45. The 2-year moved from 3.98 to 4.21, while the 1-year rose from 3.79 to 4.06. Even the shorter end shifted notably, with the 3-month going from 3.69 to 3.85 and the 6-month moving from 3.78 to 3.99. The intermediate maturities showed some of the larger moves, with the 5-year at 4.30 versus 4.13 previously.

The curve remains inverted in certain segments, with the 2-year at 4.21 sitting above the 3-year at 4.22 and the 10-year at 4.56. However, the long end of the curve is steeper, with the 20-year at 5.08 and 30-year at 5.06 both well above the 10-year. Compared to one month ago when the 2-year was 3.98 and 10-year was 4.45, the inversion between those two maturities has narrowed. The short end of the curve has risen more sharply over the month than the long end, compressing the inversion between the 2-year and 10-year from a gap of 47 basis points to 35 basis points. The 30-year is now only 50 basis points above the 10-year, compared to 54 basis points a month ago, indicating the curve has flattened somewhat at the long end.