Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.16 percent on Friday, up from 5.06 percent one week ago. This marks a 10 basis point rise in longer-term rates over the past week, reflecting continued upward pressure on the long end of the curve. The 20-year rate also climbed to 5.18 percent, moving 11 basis points higher compared to last Friday's 5.07 percent reading.

Rates moved higher across the entire yield curve today compared to last Friday. The short end saw notable increases, with the 2-month rate rising from 3.80 to 3.95 percent, a 15 basis point jump. The 1-year rate climbed from 4.01 to 4.14 percent over the same period. Medium-term maturities also shifted upward, as the 5-year moved from 4.28 to 4.43 percent and the 10-year rose from 4.55 to 4.69 percent. The 2-year rate, a key benchmark for market expectations, increased from 4.18 to 4.33 percent.

Looking back one month, rates have risen substantially across all maturities. The 6-month rate climbed from 3.82 to 4.08 percent, representing a 26 basis point increase over 30 days. The 1-year rate moved from 3.86 to 4.14 percent, a 28 basis point gain that stands as one of the larger monthly shifts. Medium-term rates also moved higher, with the 5-year rising from 4.21 to 4.43 percent and the 10-year climbing from 4.48 to 4.69 percent. The 30-year rate increased from 4.97 to 5.16 percent over the same timeframe.

The yield curve remains inverted, with the 2-year rate at 4.33 percent sitting above the 10-year rate at 4.69 percent. This inversion of 36 basis points has remained relatively stable compared to last week's 37 basis point spread. The curve steepened slightly when looking at the spread between 2-year and 30-year rates, which widened to 83 basis points from 88 basis points last week. Month-over-month, this spread has narrowed from 88 basis points to 83 basis points, indicating a modest flattening in the long end relative to the middle of the curve.