Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield settled at 5.15 percent on Wednesday, up seven basis points from 5.08 percent last week. The 10-year rate came in at 4.67 percent compared to 4.55 percent the prior Wednesday. Most maturities across the curve moved higher over the past week, with the 2-year climbing from 4.13 percent to 4.31 percent and the 5-year reaching 4.41 percent from 4.26 percent. The 20-year yield rose to 5.17 percent from 5.07 percent a week ago, while the 3-month rate edged up to 3.89 percent from 3.83 percent.

Short-term rates jumped notably compared to last week, with the 6-month climbing from 3.93 percent to 4.05 percent and the 1-year moving from 3.97 percent to 4.11 percent. The 4-month rate showed a significant increase, rising to 4.00 percent from 3.89 percent the prior week. Mid-range maturities also moved higher, as the 3-year reached 4.34 percent from 4.18 percent and the 7-year climbed to 4.53 percent from 4.39 percent. The 20-year and 30-year portions of the curve posted more modest gains of around seven to ten basis points over the same period.

Looking back one month, the curve has shifted higher across most maturities. The 1-year rate climbed from 3.90 percent to 4.11 percent over the past month, while the 6-month rose from 3.82 percent to 4.05 percent. The 3-month moved from 3.79 percent to 3.89 percent, and the 4-month jumped from 3.80 percent to 4.00 percent. The 20-year increased from 5.04 percent to 5.17 percent, and the 30-year climbed from 5.03 percent to 5.15 percent. Longer-dated rates like the 10-year and 7-year showed little change month-over-month, staying near 4.55 percent and 4.40 percent respectively.

The curve remains inverted across most maturities, with the 2-year at 4.31 percent sitting above the 3-month at 3.89 percent. The 5-year at 4.41 percent is notably higher than the 6-month at 4.05 percent, continuing the inversion in that portion of the curve. The 20-year yield of 5.17 percent exceeds the 30-year yield of 5.15 percent, an unusual relationship that has persisted for at least the past month. The curve shifted steeper over the past week as short-term rates rose more sharply than long-term rates, though inversions in the short-to-mid portions of the curve remain intact.