Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield came in at 5.09 percent on Tuesday, down from 5.13 percent one week ago. This marks the fourth consecutive session of declines for the long bond, the longest losing streak in six weeks. The yield has moved lower in three of the past four trading days, reflecting renewed demand for long-term government debt. Despite this recent pullback, the 30-year rate remains well above where it started the month.

The broader curve shifted lower across nearly all maturities compared to last Tuesday. The 10-year yield fell to 4.61 percent from 4.63 percent, while the 2-year held steady at 4.26 percent. Short-term rates showed mixed movement, with the 4-week yield ticking up to 3.76 percent and the 3-month yield rising to 3.90 percent. The 20-year yield dropped to 5.11 percent from 5.14 percent, while the 7-year slipped to 4.47 percent from 4.50 percent.

Over the past month, the entire curve has moved significantly higher. The 4-week rate climbed to 3.76 percent from 3.67 percent, while the 6-month rose to 4.07 percent from 3.81 percent. The 1-year yield increased to 4.09 percent from 3.84 percent. The most pronounced monthly shifts occurred at the short end, where rates moved up by roughly 0.25 percent. The 10-year rose to 4.61 percent from 4.43 percent, and the 20-year climbed to 5.11 percent from 4.92 percent. Longer maturities gained about 0.16 percent over the month, while the 2-year jumped to 4.26 percent from 4.05 percent.

The yield curve remains inverted between the 2-year and 10-year, with the 10-year trading 0.35 percent above the 2-year. The gap between the 20-year and 10-year has widened to 0.50 percent, the largest spread on the curve. The 30-year sits just 0.02 percent below the 20-year, suggesting the curve flattened at the long end compared to last week. The short end has steepened month-over-week while the middle and long portions have flattened.