Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.13 percent on Tuesday, up from 5.08 percent one week ago. This marks a steady increase over the past seven days as longer-term borrowing costs continued their upward trend. The 20-year yield also moved higher, reaching 5.14 percent compared to 5.09 percent last Tuesday. These gains at the long end of the market represent some of the more significant moves investors have seen in recent sessions.

Across the broader curve, yields moved higher at nearly every maturity compared to last week. The 10-year rate rose to 4.63 percent from 4.58 percent, while the 7-year climbed to 4.50 percent from 4.44 percent. The middle part of the curve saw notable increases, with the 5-year at 4.37 percent, the 3-year at 4.31 percent, and the 2-year at 4.26 percent. Short-term rates also ticked upward, with the 1-year reaching 4.08 percent and the 6-month moving to 4.02 percent. Even the shortest maturities strengthened, as the 4-week rate rose to 3.75 percent and the 6-week rate climbed to 3.81 percent.

Looking back over the past month, rates have moved substantially higher across the entire curve. The 30-year yield has climbed from 5.01 percent to 5.13 percent, while the 20-year rose from 5.02 percent to 5.14 percent. The 10-year moved from 4.53 percent to 4.63 percent, and the 7-year climbed from 4.39 percent to 4.50 percent. Short-term rates saw even larger monthly increases, with the 1-year jumping from 3.90 percent to 4.08 percent and the 6-month rising from 3.82 percent to 4.02 percent. The 3-month rate moved from 3.79 percent to 3.87 percent over the same period.

The yield curve remains inverted, with shorter-term rates continuing to exceed longer-term rates. The 2-year yield at 4.26 percent sits below the 10-year at 4.63 percent, maintaining the persistent inversion in that part of the curve. Comparing the curve shape to one week ago, rates have risen broadly but the inversion has narrowed slightly as middle and longer maturities caught up with short-term moves. Over the past month, the entire curve has shifted higher, though the short end has risen more sharply than the long end, keeping the overall inverted shape intact while the gap between inverted and non-inverted sections continues to evolve.