Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.06 percent on Wednesday, up from 4.97 percent one week ago. This represents a notable weekly gain for the longest maturity, as investors continue adjusting expectations for longer-term borrowing costs. The 20-year yield also moved higher, reaching 5.07 percent compared to 4.97 percent last Wednesday.

Looking at the broader curve, most maturities shifted higher over the past week. The 2-year yield rose to 4.21 percent from 4.17 percent, while the 5-year climbed to 4.31 percent from 4.24 percent. The 10-year moved from 4.48 percent to 4.56 percent, and the 7-year reached 4.43 percent versus 4.35 percent the prior week. The shortest maturities showed more modest movement, with the 3-month steady around 3.87 percent and the 6-month holding near 3.99 percent.

Comparing today's rates to one month ago reveals significant upward movement across the curve. The 1-year yield jumped to 4.06 percent from 3.80 percent, a notable increase of roughly a quarter percentage point. The 6-month rate climbed to 3.99 percent from 3.79 percent, and the 3-month moved from 3.68 percent to 3.87 percent. The 5-year rose to 4.31 percent from 4.17 percent, while the 10-year stayed relatively flat at 4.56 percent compared to 4.48 percent a month earlier. The longer end of the curve showed more modest movement, with the 20-year at 5.07 percent versus 5.01 percent and the 30-year at 5.06 percent versus 5.01 percent thirty days ago.

The yield curve remains inverted, with the 3-month rate at 3.87 percent sitting below the 2-year at 4.21 percent. This inversion has persisted over the past month and week. However, the curve steepened compared to last week as longer-term rates rose more sharply than shorter-term rates. The gap between the 10-year and 3-month spreads widened to about 69 basis points, up from roughly 63 basis points a week ago. The middle of the curve shows relatively tight spacing, with the 2-year and 3-year both at 4.21 percent, while rates climb more steeply toward the 20-year maturity.