Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed Monday at 5.10 percent, up from 4.99 percent one week ago. This represents a notable increase for the longest maturity, as rates climbed steadily throughout the trading week and continued higher into Monday's session. The 30-year has now crossed back above the 5 percent threshold after spending time below that level in recent weeks. Investors saw meaningful changes in long-term borrowing costs over just the past seven days.

Rates moved higher across the entire curve compared to last Monday. The 10-year yield rose to 4.62 percent from 4.48 percent, while the 2-year climbed to 4.26 percent from 4.13 percent. The 20-year reached 5.11 percent, making it the highest rate on the curve and just slightly above the 30-year yield. Short-term rates also increased, with the 3-month rate moving to 3.89 percent from 3.87 percent and the 6-month reaching 4.03 percent from 3.98 percent. Nearly every maturity saw rates climb between 10 and 15 basis points over the week.

Looking back one month, the curve has shifted substantially upward. The 6-month rate has risen the most dramatically, moving from 3.79 percent to 4.03 percent over the past month. The 1-year yield climbed to 4.12 percent from 3.83 percent, representing a 29 basis point increase. Medium-term maturities also moved significantly higher, with the 5-year at 4.37 percent versus 4.18 percent and the 10-year at 4.62 percent compared to 4.47 percent one month ago. The long end has seen more modest month-over-month increases, with the 30-year rising just 11 basis points over the same period.

The yield curve has flattened over the past month and displays an unusual pattern at the long end. The 20-year yield of 5.11 percent has temporarily moved above the 30-year yield of 5.10 percent, a rare occurrence that marks a slight inversion between these two maturities. The spread between the 30-year and 2-year has narrowed from 94 basis points one month ago to 84 basis points today. Comparing to last week, the 30-year to 2-year spread has compressed from 86 basis points to 84 basis points, showing continued flattening pressure. The curve remains right-side up overall, with yields increasing from short to long maturities, though the relationship between the longest maturities has become notably compressed.