Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.92 percent on Thursday, holding steady compared to last Thursday when it stood at 4.93 percent. This long-term rate has remained remarkably stable over the past week, fluctuating within a narrow range. The 10-year yield came in at 4.34 percent, ticking slightly higher from 4.32 percent one week earlier. Overall, long-term rates showed modest upward movement during the week.

Looking at the broader yield curve, rates moved higher across most maturities compared to last Thursday. The 2-year yield rose to 3.83 percent from 3.78 percent, while the 5-year climbed to 3.96 percent from 3.91 percent. The 7-year moved to 4.13 percent versus 4.10 percent the prior week. Shorter-term rates were mixed, with the 1-month holding near 3.69 percent and the 6-month unchanged at 3.72 percent. The 20-year yield stayed at 4.90 percent throughout the week.

Over the past month, rates have generally shifted higher along most of the curve. The 30-year yield increased to 4.92 percent from 4.88 percent one month ago, while the 10-year climbed to 4.34 percent from 4.27 percent. Medium-term yields saw more pronounced movement, with the 5-year rising to 3.96 percent from 3.88 percent and the 7-year moving to 4.13 percent from 4.06 percent. The 2-year also ticked up to 3.83 percent from 3.76 percent. At the very short end, rates have actually declined slightly, with the 1-month dropping to 3.69 percent from 3.76 percent.

The curve flattened compared to both last week and one month ago, though it remains in a normal upward slope. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year stands at 51 basis points, narrower than the inversion that existed a month ago. The difference between the 10-year and 30-year has compressed to 58 basis points, down from 61 basis points last week. The longest portions of the curve have seen the steepest increases relative to shorter maturities over the past month, narrowing the gap between intermediate and long-term yields.