Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield settled at 4.94 percent Tuesday, holding steady with Monday's close but moving higher compared to last week when it stood at 4.89 percent. This marks a weekly increase of five basis points for the longest maturity on the curve. The 20-year yield also remained unchanged at 4.92 percent from yesterday while gaining five basis points over the past week. These long-end rates have continued their upward climb that began earlier this month.

The broader yield curve showed modest upward pressure across most maturities compared to one week ago. The 2-year yield rose to 3.84 percent from 3.78 percent last week, while the 3-year moved to 3.86 percent versus 3.80 percent. The 5-year climbed to 3.97 percent from 3.91 percent, and the 7-year reached 4.16 percent compared to 4.09 percent the prior Tuesday. The 10-year yield edged up to 4.36 percent from 4.30 percent, while shorter-dated bills saw mixed movement with the 4-week rate at 3.68 percent and the 1-year at 3.71 percent. Most intermediate and long-term maturities gained between three and seven basis points over the week.

Looking back 30 days to mid-March, the curve has shifted notably higher across nearly all maturities. The 30-year yield has climbed nine basis points from 4.85 percent, while the 10-year rose sixteen basis points from 4.20 percent. The 2-year saw the largest monthly increase at sixteen basis points, moving from 3.68 percent. The 5-year gained eighteen basis points from 3.79 percent, and the 7-year climbed eighteen basis points from 3.98 percent. Short-term rates tell a different story, with the 4-week rate falling six basis points from 3.74 percent and the 1-year rising only eight basis points from 3.63 percent.

The yield curve has steepened considerably over the past month as longer maturities rose faster than the short end. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year has widened to 52 basis points from 44 basis points one month ago. The curve remains inverted at the front end, with the 4-week yield at 3.68 percent sitting below the 6-month yield at 3.72 percent, though this inversion has narrowed from last week when the gap was five basis points. The entire curve has shifted upward over the month, with intermediate maturities showing the most pronounced moves while short-term rates have remained relatively flat or declined slightly.