Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.94 percent on Monday, climbing six basis points from last Monday's 4.88 percent. This represents the highest level for the long bond in recent weeks, following a steady climb that also put it three basis points above Friday's close of 4.91 percent.

The broader curve shifted higher across nearly all maturities compared to last Monday. Short-term rates including the 6-week, 1-year, and 2-year rose between one and six basis points. The intermediate portion of the curve saw more pronounced moves, with the 3-year up six basis points and the 5-year gaining eight basis points. Long-end rates climbed as well, with the 10-year reaching 4.35 percent, nine basis points higher than a week ago, while the 20-year settled at 4.92 percent, up seven basis points.

Looking back over the past month, yields have moved higher across most maturities. The 2-year rose to 3.78 percent from 3.68 percent a month ago, while the 3-year climbed from 3.69 to 3.83 percent. The 5-year stands at 3.94 percent, 14 basis points above its reading from 30 days prior. The 7-year showed one of the larger monthly shifts, moving from 4.00 to 4.14 percent. The 10-year gained 12 basis points month-over-month to reach 4.35 percent, and the 30-year moved from 4.86 to 4.94 percent. Very short-term rates were relatively stable, with the 3-month holding near 3.68 percent.

The yield curve steepened over the past week as longer-term rates rose faster than shorter-term ones. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields remains inverted at negative 57 basis points, compared to negative 54 basis points last Monday and negative 55 basis points a month ago, indicating the inversion has deepened slightly over both periods. The gap between the 30-year and 2-year widened to 116 basis points from 116 last week and 118 a month ago, reflecting the steeper slope at the longer end of the curve.