Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.93 today, up from 4.90 a week ago. That marks a gain of 3 basis points over the past week for the longest maturity. The 10-year yield also ticked up 3 basis points to 4.32, while the 7-year held steady at 4.10. The short end of the curve saw modest movement, with the 4-week rate rising to 3.69 and the 3-month inching to 3.70. The 2-year rate stayed flat at 3.78 compared to last Thursday.

Looking at the full curve compared to a week ago, most maturities stayed relatively steady or moved slightly higher. The 3-year rate moved up 3 basis points to 3.80, while the 20-year climbed 2 basis points to 4.90. The 5-year and 1-year barely budged, each changing by just 1 basis point. Yesterday was slightly lower across the board, so today's modest increases represent a modest push back up.

The curve has shifted substantially higher over the past month. The 30-year has risen 19 basis points from 4.74 in early March, and the 10-year has climbed the same amount to 4.32. The middle of the curve has moved even more, with the 2-year and 3-year each up 21 basis points over the month. Short-term rates have been quieter, with the 1-year gaining 10 basis points and the 4-week actually dropping 6 basis points. The entire belly of the curve has shifted upward noticeably.

The curve shape has steepened over the month. The spread between the 10-year and 30-year held at 61 basis points, but the gap between the 2-year and 10-year compressed from 56 to 54 basis points compared to last week. The most notable shift is at the short end, where the previous inversion between 1-year and 3-month rates has normalized. The distance between the 3-month and 30-year has widened from 104 basis points a month ago to 123 basis points today, showing the steepening has been concentrated in the longer maturities while short-term rates remain anchored.