Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield came in at 4.89 percent on Wednesday, unchanged from a week earlier but notably higher than the 4.72 percent seen a month ago. The 10-year yield held steady at 4.29 percent week-over-week, while the 2-year rate dropped slightly to 3.76 percent from 3.79 percent last Wednesday. Short-term rates moved modestly higher today, with the 4-week yield reaching 3.72 percent compared to 3.67 percent a week prior. The long end of the curve has shown considerable strength over the past month, with the 20-year yield climbing to 4.87 percent from 4.67 percent in early March.

The yield curve shifted modestly across most maturities today. The 3-year rate rose three basis points to 3.79 percent, the 5-year gained three basis points to 3.90 percent, and the 7-year moved up two basis points to 4.08 percent. The 10-year climbed three basis points to 4.29 percent, while the 20-year ticked up three basis points to 4.87 percent. Looking at the week-over-week picture, the 5-year fell three basis points and the 7-year dropped two basis points, while the 2-year and 3-year both declined three basis points from last Wednesday's levels.

Comparing current rates to one month ago reveals a steeper curve overall. The 2-year yield has climbed 22 basis points since early March, reaching 3.76 percent from 3.54 percent. The 3-year has risen 24 basis points, the 5-year has gained 23 basis points, and the 7-year has moved up 21 basis points. The 10-year has increased 20 basis points over the past month. The longer maturities have also shifted higher, with the 20-year up 20 basis points and the 30-year up 17 basis points. Short-term rates show mixed movement, with the 3-month holding steady at 3.71 percent while the 1-year has risen 12 basis points to 3.70 percent.

The curve remains relatively flat in the middle section compared to both last week and 30 days ago. The 2-year through 7-year segment shows tight spacing between yields, with only 32 basis points separating the 2-year from the 7-year today. This spread was 34 basis points last week and has narrowed from 33 basis points a month ago. The inversion between short-term rates and longer maturities persists, as the 3-month rate at 3.71 percent sits below the 2-year at 3.76 percent. The curve steepened significantly from the 7-year onward, with the 7-year at 4.08 percent running 21 basis points below the 10-year at 4.29 percent. The spread between the 10-year and 30-year contracted to 60 basis points, slightly tighter than the 62 basis points observed a month ago.