Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.9 percent on Wednesday, ticking up from 4.89 percent a week ago. This marks the highest level for the longest maturity in recent weeks, reflecting continued pressure on long-term rates. The 10-year yield held steady at 4.3 percent, showing little change from yesterday and only a modest increase from 4.29 percent last Wednesday.

Looking at the broader curve, rates moved higher across most maturities compared to one week ago. The 2-year yield climbed to 3.79 percent from 3.76 percent, while the 5-year reached 3.91 percent versus 3.9 percent previously. The 7-year also edged up to 4.1 percent. Shorter-term bills largely moved lower, with the 4-week rate falling to 3.68 percent from 3.72 percent and the 2-month rate dropping to 3.7 percent from 3.74 percent. The 20-year yield remained unchanged at 4.87 percent.

Over the past month, rates have climbed meaningfully across the curve. The 2-year yield jumped to 3.79 percent from 3.64 percent, and the 3-year rose to 3.81 percent from 3.64 percent. The 10-year climbed to 4.3 percent from 4.21 percent, while the 30-year moved to 4.9 percent from 4.86 percent. The front end of the curve also shifted higher, with the 1-year rate increasing to 3.69 percent from 3.6 percent and the 6-month rate moving up to 3.72 percent from 3.68 percent.

The curve remains inverted at the short end, with the 2-year yield sitting 51 basis points above the 10-year yield. This inversion is slightly steeper than it was a week ago when the spread was 53 basis points. Looking back 30 days, the 2-year to 10-year spread was tighter at 43 basis points, suggesting the inversion has widened over the past month. The long end of the curve has steepened notably, with the gap between 10-year and 30-year yields expanding to 60 basis points from 65 basis points a week ago but wider than the 65 basis point gap from a month ago.