Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.88 percent on Tuesday, down from 4.94 percent one week ago. That marks a notable decline for the longest maturity rate, though it remains significantly elevated compared to where it stood a month ago. The yield dropped three basis points from yesterday's close of 4.91 percent, showing some intraday momentum toward lower rates as the trading session progressed.

The broader curve shifted lower across most maturities compared to last week, with longer-dated yields leading the decline. The 10-year fell to 4.30 percent from 4.39 percent last Tuesday, while the 7-year dropped to 4.11 percent from 4.21 percent. The 2-year yielded 3.79 percent, down from 3.90 percent the prior week. Short-term rates were relatively stable, with the 3-month and 6-month both holding near 3.70 to 3.72 percent, showing minimal movement week-over-week.

Over the past 30 days, the yield curve has shifted dramatically higher, particularly at the front end. The 2-year surged from 3.43 percent in mid-February to 3.79 percent today, a move of roughly 36 basis points. The 10-year climbed from 4.05 percent to 4.30 percent over the same period. The most striking move came at the 6-month maturity, which rose from 3.59 percent to 3.72 percent, showing how short-term borrowing costs have increased noticeably over the month.

The curve remains inverted between the 2-year and the 10-year, with the spread holding around 51 basis points. That inversion has narrowed slightly from the 49-basis-point gap seen a week ago. Interestingly, the 20-year and 30-year yields are now identical at 4.88 percent, flattening the very long end of the curve. Compared to a month ago when the 2-year sat at 3.43 percent and the 10-year at 4.05 percent, the inversion has deepened considerably, reflecting the sharper rise in front-end rates relative to intermediate maturities.