Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.91 percent on Monday, rising five basis points from last week's level of 4.86 percent. This marks a notable pickup for the longest maturity after several weeks of relative stability. The move comes as yields across the board have pushed higher following last week's Federal Reserve meeting, which reinforced expectations that policymakers are in no rush to cut interest rates further.

Looking at the broader curve, the most pronounced weekly shifts occurred in the intermediate segment. The 2-year yield climbed to 3.83 percent from 3.68 percent a week ago, a move of 15 basis points. The 3-year followed closely, rising to 3.85 percent compared to 3.69 percent last Monday. The 5-year reached 3.95 percent, up 15 basis points from its prior level. Short-term rates of six months and under remained relatively flat, hovering between 3.71 and 3.77 percent, with only marginal changes from last Friday's readings.

Over the past month, yields have moved steadily higher across nearly every maturity point. The 1-year rate has climbed 33 basis points from 3.43 percent to its current 3.76 percent. The 2-year has risen 35 basis points since early February, while the 5-year has added 20 basis points to reach 3.95 percent. The 10-year stands at 4.34 percent, up 12 basis points from its level 30 days ago. Short-term rates of six months or less have also ticked up, with the 6-month rising 18 basis points over the same period.

The curve shape has undergone a notable transformation over the past week. The traditional inversion between the 1-year and 2-year has reversed, with the 2-year now yielding seven basis points more than the 1-year. This marks a shift from the prior week when the 1-year exceeded the 2-year by four basis points. The overall curve has steepened compared to both last week and one month ago, as intermediate-term rates have climbed faster than longer-term yields. The spread between the 10-year and 30-year has narrowed to just three basis points, indicating the long end of the curve remains relatively compressed despite recent moves.