Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield opened at 4.91 percent today, ticking up from 4.89 percent one week ago. This marks a modest weekly gain for the longest maturity. The yield has risen three basis points just since yesterday, when it closed at 4.88 percent.

Yields shifted higher across the middle and long end of the curve compared to last week. The 2-year moved to 3.81 percent from 3.84 percent, while the 3-year fell to 3.84 percent from 3.88 percent. The 5-year reached 3.97 percent, up from 3.96 percent, and the 7-year held steady at 4.15 percent. The 10-year stayed at 4.33 percent. Short-term bills showed mixed movement, with the 1-year dropping to 3.68 percent from 3.77 percent and the 6-month declining to 3.72 percent from 3.76 percent.

Looking back one month, yields have climbed substantially across all maturities. The 2-year surged to 3.81 percent from 3.47 percent, and the 3-year jumped to 3.84 percent from 3.50 percent. The 5-year rose to 3.97 percent from 3.66 percent, while the 7-year climbed to 4.15 percent from 3.86 percent. The 10-year moved to 4.33 percent from 4.09 percent, and the 20-year reached 4.91 percent from 4.65 percent. Short-term rates also increased, with the 1-year gaining to 3.68 percent from 3.49 percent and the 6-month rising to 3.72 percent from 3.60 percent.

The curve has steepened noticeably over the past month, with the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields narrowing from 62 basis points to 52 basis points. The short end has inverted, as the 1-year at 3.68 percent now sits below the 2-year at 3.81 percent. This represents a flip from one month ago when the 1-year was slightly above the 2-year. The long end flattened, with the 20-year and 30-year both at 4.91 percent, compared to a 6 basis point gap a month ago.