Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.94 percent on Tuesday, up from 4.85 percent one week ago. This marks a meaningful move higher for the longest maturity, pushing yields closer to the 5 percent threshold. The weekly gain of roughly 9 basis points represents one of the larger single-week shifts for this part of the curve in recent weeks. Investors have been watching the 30-year rate closely as it tests levels not seen in several months.

The yield curve shifted higher across nearly all maturities compared to last Tuesday. The 2-year yield climbed to 3.90 percent from 3.68 percent, while the 5-year moved to 4.03 percent from 3.79 percent. The 10-year rose to 4.39 percent versus 4.20 percent the prior week. Even the short end ticked up, with the 3-month rate at 3.74 percent compared to 3.72 percent seven days earlier. Every maturity from 3 months out to 30 years moved higher over the week.

Looking back one month, the curve has shifted dramatically upward. The 2-year yield has risen from 3.45 percent to 3.90 percent, a substantial move of about 45 basis points. The 5-year climbed from 3.70 percent to 4.03 percent over the same span. The 10-year moved from 4.16 percent to 4.39 percent. Short-term rates also increased, with the 1-year jumping from 3.40 percent to 3.81 percent. The entire curve has shifted higher by roughly 20 to 45 basis points depending on maturity.

The curve remains upward sloping, though the slope has compressed compared to earlier periods. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year sits at negative 49 basis points, meaning the curve remains inverted in that section. The gap between the 2-year and 30-year has narrowed from about 1.40 basis points one month ago to roughly 1.04 basis points today. The curve is steeper at the long end than the short end, with the 30-year only slightly below the 20-year. This inversion pattern has persisted but has shown some modest flattening over the past 30 days.