Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.98% on Friday, inching up from 4.96% one week ago. This marks the highest level for the long bond since earlier this year and continues a steady climb that has pushed longer-term rates notably higher over recent weeks. The 30-year remains one of the most closely watched parts of the curve as it represents the benchmark for mortgage pricing and other long-duration assets.

Rates moved higher across much of the curve compared to last Friday. The 10-year reached 4.44% versus 4.39% the prior week, while the 7-year climbed to 4.25% from 4.2%. The 5-year moved up to 4.06% and the 3-year rose to 3.94%, both posting gains over the seven-day period. Short-term rates saw more modest movement, with the 4-week ticking up to 3.74% and the 6-month declining to 3.75% from 3.79%. The 2-year held steady at 3.88%, while the 1-year dipped to 3.77%.

The curve has shifted dramatically higher over the past 30 days, with nearly every maturity climbing. The 2-year surged to 3.88% from 3.4%, gaining 48 basis points in a month. The 3-year climbed to 3.94% from 3.43%, a move of 51 basis points. The 1-year rate jumped to 3.77% from 3.42%, a 35-basis-point increase. Even the longer end posted substantial gains, with the 10-year at 4.44% versus 4.04% a month ago. The 20-year moved to 4.99% from 4.64%, and the 30-year rose to 4.98% from 4.69%.

The curve continues to display a steep upward slope from the short end through the long end, though the 20-year at 4.99% sits slightly above the 30-year at 4.98%, creating a minor inversion between those two maturities. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year widened to 56 basis points from 51 basis points last week, showing the curve steepened modestly over the past seven days. Looking back 30 days, the 2-year to 10-year spread has narrowed from 64 basis points to 56 basis points as intermediate maturities rose faster than the long end, reflecting how the curve has evolved across different time horizons.