Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield came in at 4.83 percent Thursday, a decline from the 4.88 percent level seen a week ago. The yield has held relatively steady in recent sessions after moving lower from the previous Thursday. Short-term rates have shown some volatility, with the 4-week rate falling to 3.73 percent from 3.76 percent last week.

Looking at the broader curve, most maturities moved lower compared to one week ago. The 10-year yield settled at 4.25 percent, down from 4.27 percent the prior Thursday. The 7-year rate came in at 4.06 percent, essentially unchanged from the previous week. Yields in the middle part of the curve dipped slightly, with the 3-year at 3.79 percent compared to 3.75 percent a week earlier. The 2-year yield rose to 3.79 percent from 3.76 percent last week.

Over the past month, rates across the curve have moved higher. The 1-year yield climbed to 3.73 percent from 3.44 percent in early February, representing one of the larger shifts in the short-term range. The 6-month rate increased to 3.76 percent from 3.58 percent a month ago. The 2-year yield jumped to 3.79 percent from 3.47 percent, while the 5-year moved to 3.88 percent from 3.74 percent. Longer maturities also rose, with the 10-year at 4.25 percent versus 4.21 percent a month prior and the 7-year at 4.06 percent compared to 3.97 percent previously.

The curve shows some notable patterns when comparing periods. The 6-month rate at 3.76 percent sits above the 1-year rate at 3.73 percent, indicating a mild inversion in that segment. The 20-year yield at 4.82 percent nearly matches the 30-year at 4.83 percent, creating a relatively flat stretch at the long end. Compared to last week, the 30-year is 5 basis points lower while the 20-year fell 4 basis points. The difference between the 2-year and 10-year narrowed to 46 basis points from 51 basis points a week ago, and the 2-year to 30-year spread contracted to 104 basis points from 112 basis points last Thursday.