Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield settled at 4.85 percent on Tuesday, ticking slightly lower from 4.86 percent on Monday but moving higher compared to 4.78 percent one week ago. The 20-year rate also dipped to 4.81 percent from yesterday's 4.83 percent, though it remains elevated relative to last week's 4.74 percent. Long-term rates have climbed notably over the past week, reversing some of the ground gained earlier in the month. The benchmark 10-year yield stands at 4.20 percent, down three basis points from yesterday but still higher than the 4.15 percent recorded a week prior.

The broader curve showed modest declines across most maturities from Monday to Tuesday. The shortest-term bills dipped slightly, with the 4-week rate falling to 3.74 percent from 3.75 percent and the 6-week rate dropping to 3.72 percent from 3.73 percent. The 3-month and 2-month rates held steady at 3.72 percent, while the 6-month rate slipped one basis point to 3.71 percent. The middle of the curve saw the most movement, with the 5-year declining to 3.79 percent from 3.80 percent and the 7-year falling to 3.98 percent from 4.00 percent. The 2-year and 3-year rates both remained unchanged at 3.68 percent.

Looking back over the past month, the curve has shifted in a mixed pattern with short-term rates rising while long-term rates have declined. The 4-week rate moved slightly higher from 3.72 percent to 3.74 percent, and the 6-month rate increased from 3.62 percent to 3.71 percent. The 1-year rate climbed from 3.49 percent to 3.63 percent over the month. On the longer end, the 30-year rate fell from 4.90 percent to 4.85 percent and the 10-year dropped from 4.28 percent to 4.20 percent. The 5-year rate dipped slightly from 3.83 percent to 3.79 percent, while the 7-year actually moved lower from 4.04 percent to 3.98 percent over the month.

The curve maintains a somewhat unusual shape with multiple inversion points. At the very front end, the 4-week rate at 3.74 percent sits above the 2-month and 3-month rates at 3.72 percent. The curve then flattens through the middle before inverting again between the 1-year at 3.63 percent and the 2-year at 3.68 percent. From the 2-year onward, yields rise steadily through the 30-year at 4.85 percent. Compared to last week's curve, the long end has steepened with the gap between the 10-year and 30-year widening slightly. Over the past month, the curve has flattened overall as shorter-term rates increased while longer-term rates declined, narrowing the overall spread between the shortest and longest maturities.