Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.25% today, marking the highest rate across all maturities on the curve. This represents an increase of six hundredths of a percent compared to last Friday when the 30-year stood at 5.19%. The 20-year yield also reached 5.25%, matching the 30-year rate exactly. The 10-year yield came in at 4.68%, climbing three hundredths of a percent from last week's 4.65%. Long-duration yields have strengthened notably over the past week, pushing the far end of the curve higher.

Looking at the broader curve, longer maturities generally moved higher while shorter-term rates edged lower. The 20-year gained five hundredths to hit 5.25%, and the 7-year rose two hundredths to 4.51%. The 5-year increased two hundredths to 4.36%. However, the short end of the curve softened, with the 2-year declining two hundredths to 4.17% and the 1-year dropping three hundredths to 3.98%. The 6-month rate fell one hundredth to 3.95%, and the 3-month rate dipped to 3.86%. This divergence between the short and long ends created a mixed picture across the curve this week.

Comparing to last week, the curve has shifted with front-end rates declining and long-end rates rising. The 30-year moved from 5.19% to 5.25%, while the 10-year went from 4.65% to 4.68%. Meanwhile, the 2-year fell from 4.19% to 4.17%, and the 1-year dropped from 4.01% to 3.98%. The middle of the curve showed modest gains, with the 5-year at 4.36% versus 4.35% last Friday. Data from one month ago was not available, making a full 30-day comparison impractical with the information on hand.

The yield curve remains inverted in the short-to-middle section, with the 2-year at 4.17% sitting above the 10-year at 4.68%. This inversion has persisted over the past week. The 20-year and 30-year yields have converged to the same level at 5.25%, creating a flat spot at the far end of the curve. The gap between the 30-year and 10-year stands at 57 hundredths of a percent. Compared to last Friday, the curve has steepened slightly at the long end while the front end has compressed, narrowing the overall spread between the shortest and longest maturities.