Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield ended the week at 5.22%, down from 5.27% one week ago. This represents a modest decline over the past seven days, though the rate did climb slightly from yesterday's 5.19% reading. The long end of the curve showed some pullback after recent elevated levels, offering a slight reprieve from the upward pressure seen in recent weeks.

The broader yield curve shifted higher across most maturities compared to last Friday. The shortest-term bills saw the most pronounced increases, with the 4-week rate rising from 3.80% to 3.84% and the 6-week rate moving from 3.77% to 3.83%. The one-year maturity showed a notable jump, climbing from 4.03% to 4.15%. Longer-dated yields also moved up, including the 10-year rising from 4.74% to 4.73% and the 20-year declining slightly from 5.25% to 5.21%.

Looking back over the past month, yields have increased substantially across the entire curve. The 5-year rate climbed from 4.28% to 4.48%, marking one of the larger monthly moves. The 7-year maturity rose from 4.40% to 4.59%, while the 10-year moved from 4.55% to 4.73%. The 30-year rate increased from 5.06% to 5.22%, representing a meaningful shift higher over the 30-day period. Even shorter maturities like the 3-month bill moved from 3.85% to 3.90%, though the increases were more pronounced in the intermediate and long end of the curve.

The curve has steepened compared to both last week and one month ago. The 30-year yield at 5.22% remains meaningfully above the 10-year at 4.73%, maintaining a substantial spread between the long and intermediate portions of the curve. The 2-year rate at 4.34% sits below the 10-year at 4.73%, keeping that portion of the curve inverted. Comparing to a month ago, the inversion between the 2-year and 10-year has narrowed as the intermediate maturities have risen more steeply than the front end of the curve.