Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield settled at 5.21% today, essentially unchanged from last week's 5.22%. This long-term rate has held remarkably steady over the past seven days despite some movement in shorter maturities. The 20-year yield also remained firm at 5.20%, just two basis points below where it stood this time last week. Investors continue to focus on the long end of the curve as economic data and fiscal concerns influence longer-term rate expectations.

The broader yield curve shifted lower across most maturities compared to last week. The 2-year rate dropped to 4.15% from 4.25%, marking one of the larger weekly declines among Treasury maturities. The 3-year fell to 4.20% from 4.31%, while the 5-year moved to 4.32% from 4.40%. Even the short end saw modest declines, with the 3-month rate easing to 3.87% from 3.90% and the 1-year falling to 3.97% from 4.06%. The longer end of the curve saw smaller moves, with the 10-year at 4.63% down from 4.69% and the 30-year essentially flat.

Looking back one month, the curve has moved significantly higher at the long end. The 30-year has climbed to 5.21% from 4.98%, a notable increase of 23 basis points. The 20-year has risen even more sharply, reaching 5.20% compared to 4.99% a month ago. The 10-year has climbed to 4.63% from 4.49%, while the 5-year sits at 4.32% versus 4.23% in early July. Short-term rates have also increased but less dramatically, with the 3-month at 3.87% up from 3.82% and the 1-year at 3.97% compared to 3.96% a month prior.

The yield curve remains inverted, though the degree of inversion has shifted. The 2-year at 4.15% sits above the 10-year at 4.63%, maintaining the inverted relationship between these key maturities. The spread between the 2-year and 30-year has widened compared to both last week and one month ago, with the 30-year now standing more than a full percentage point above the 2-year. The most notable pattern over the past month has been the sharp rise at the long end of the curve, with the 20-year and 30-year yields climbing substantially while short-term rates moved up more modestly. This has created a steeper curve at the long end compared to the short end, though the overall curve remains inverted in the 2-year to 10-year section.