Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.22 percent Thursday, matching the 20-year rate for the first time in recent history. That marked a five-basis-point jump from yesterday's 5.17 percent and a one-basis-point increase from last week's 5.21 percent. The long end of the curve has been steadily climbing this week, with the 20-year also reaching 5.22 percent today. Investors closely watch these longer-term rates as they influence mortgage costs and other lending conditions across the economy.

The broader curve shifted higher across nearly every maturity today. The 2-year rate rose to 4.25 percent from 4.18 percent yesterday, while the 5-year moved to 4.40 percent from 4.33 percent. The 10-year climbed to 4.69 percent from 4.63 percent, and the 7-year settled at 4.53 percent compared to 4.47 percent Wednesday. Even shorter maturities edged up, with the 3-month rate increasing to 3.90 percent from 3.89 percent and the 1-year reaching 4.06 percent from 4.03 percent.

Over the past month, rates have risen substantially across the entire curve. The 30-year yield has climbed 36 basis points since late June when it stood at 4.86 percent. The 10-year rate has increased 29 basis points from 4.40 percent, while the 20-year has jumped 35 basis points from 4.87 percent. Shorter maturities have also moved higher but by smaller amounts, with the 3-month rising just 6 basis points from 3.84 percent and the 1-year climbing 10 basis points from 3.96 percent over the same period.

The curve has steepened noticeably compared to both last week and a month ago. The spread between the 30-year and 3-month rates widened to 1.32 percentage points today from 1.23 percentage points a week ago and 1.02 percentage points a month prior. The 10-year to 2-year spread, which measures a key portion of the curve, stands at 0.44 percentage points today, slightly wider than last week's 0.45 percentage points and notably steeper than the 0.31 percentage points seen a month ago. The 20-year and 30-year rates are now equal at 5.22 percent, eliminating what had been a small premium on the 20-year maturity.