Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.31 percent Monday, up from 5.25 percent a week ago. This represents the most significant move at the long end of the curve over the past week. The 10-year rate held steady at 4.72 percent, matching where it stood last Monday. The jump in the 30-year rate while the 10-year remained flat suggests some uneven movement in the market.

Looking at the broader curve, the short end moved lower while the long end moved higher. The 2-year rate fell to 4.19 percent from 4.25 percent last week, dropping 6 hundredths of a percentage point. The 5-year dipped to 4.38 percent from 4.41 percent. The 1-year rate decreased to 4.00 percent from 4.04 percent. The 3-month rate edged down to 3.87 percent from 3.89 percent a week ago. Meanwhile, the 20-year rate rose to 5.30 percent from 5.25 percent last week.

Over the past month, rates have moved substantially higher across most maturities. The 30-year rate rose 32 hundredths of a percentage point from 4.99 percent in early July. The 10-year climbed 24 hundredths of a percentage point over the same period, moving from 4.48 percent to 4.72 percent. The 5-year increased 17 hundredths, reaching 4.38 percent from 4.21 percent. Shorter maturities saw smaller increases, with the 2-year rising just 6 hundredths of a percentage point and the 1-year moving up 5 hundredths. The 3-month rate remained unchanged at 3.87 percent over the month.

The curve shape has shifted notably over both time periods. A month ago, the 2-year was below the 10-year by 35 hundredths of a percentage point. Last week, that gap widened to 47 hundredths, and Monday it reached 53 hundredths, showing the curve steepening in that segment. The short end remains inverted, with the 3-month rate sitting below the 2-year rate. This inversion has deepened from a 20 hundredth gap a month ago to a 32 hundredth gap now. The long end of the curve from the 10-year through the 30-year remains positively sloped, with each maturity yielding slightly higher than the one before it.