Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield settled at 5.18 percent Tuesday, climbing nine basis points from last week's 5.09 percent. This marks the highest level for the longest maturity in several weeks and represents one of the most significant single-week moves in that part of the curve recently. The 20-year yield also moved higher by seven basis points to match the 30-year at 5.18 percent. The jump at the long end of the market stands out compared to the more mixed trading seen across shorter maturities this week.

Looking at the broader yield curve, movements since last week have been uneven across maturities. The 10-year yield rose two basis points to 4.63 percent, while the 7-year held steady at 4.47 percent. Middle maturities showed declines, with the 5-year dropping two basis points to 4.33 percent and the 2-year falling six basis points to 4.20 percent. Short-term rates also moved lower, including a 11 basis point drop in the 4-month bill to 3.91 percent and a seven basis point decline in the 6-month to 4.00 percent. The overall pattern suggests a flattening dynamic developing in the short-to-intermediate portion while longer rates moved higher.

Over the past month, rates have risen across virtually the entire curve. The 30-year has climbed 24 basis points from 4.94 percent in late June, while the 20-year moved from 4.96 percent to 5.18 percent. The 10-year increased 13 basis points to 4.63 percent, and the 7-year rose nine basis points to 4.47 percent. Even shorter maturities have moved higher over 30 days, with the 3-month rising four basis points to 3.89 percent, the 6-month up four basis points to 4.00 percent, and the 1-year increasing three basis points to 4.04 percent. The month-long trend shows a broad upward shift in yields, particularly pronounced at the long end of the curve.

The yield curve has taken on a notably steep shape, with the shortest rates around 3.78 to 3.80 percent and the longest yields at 5.18 percent. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year has widened to 43 basis points, up from 35 basis points last week and 34 basis points a month ago. The 10-year to 30-year spread remains at 55 basis points, unchanged from last week but slightly wider than 44 basis points a month ago. The curve shows a consistent upward slope from the 4-week maturity through 30 years, with no inversions present across any maturity pairing.