Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield ended Monday at 5.23%, up from 5.12% one week ago. This represents an 11 basis point increase over the past week, though it dipped slightly from Friday's 5.27% reading. The long end of the market has clearly moved higher since last Monday, with the 30-year now sitting at its highest level in recent comparisons.

The broader curve showed a mixed pattern compared to last week. Short-term rates actually declined, with the 4-week bill falling to 3.79% from 3.80%, the 3-month bill dropping to 3.91% from 3.96%, and the 1-year note slipping to 4.07% from 4.14%. Medium-term rates were relatively stable, as the 5-year held steady at 4.40%. However, longer maturities moved higher, with the 10-year rising to 4.70% from 4.65%, the 20-year climbing to 5.23% from 5.15%, and the 30-year reaching 5.23% from 5.12%.

Looking back one month, rates have increased across the entire curve. The 4-week bill rose to 3.79% from 3.66%, the 3-month bill moved to 3.91% from 3.85%, and the 1-year note climbed to 4.07% from 4.04%. The middle of the curve also shifted higher, with the 5-year at 4.40% versus 4.29% a month ago and the 10-year at 4.70% compared to 4.51%. The most dramatic moves occurred at the long end, where the 20-year jumped to 5.23% from 4.97% and the 30-year reached 5.23% from 4.95%.

The yield curve has steepened noticeably compared to both last week and one month ago. The spread between the 2-year and 30-year has widened from 81 basis points last Monday to 98 basis points today. The curve remains inverted at the very short end, where the 4-week rate of 3.79% sits below the 3-month rate of 3.91%. However, from the 1-year maturity onward, yields rise consistently with maturity length. The long end has strengthened considerably over the past month, with the 20-year and 30-year yields each climbing roughly 26 to 28 basis points, creating a notably steeper slope in the longer portion of the curve.