Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield finished Monday at 5.11 percent, ticking up slightly from last week's 5.10 percent. This modest gain for the longest maturity came after a week where most of the curve moved lower. The 20-year yield rose to 5.12 percent, pushing it above the 30-year rate for the first time in several weeks.

Most maturities across the curve finished lower compared to last Monday. The one-year rate dropped the most, falling to 4.03 percent from 4.12 percent. The two-year and three-year yields both declined to 4.21 and 4.25 percent respectively, down five basis points each from the prior week. The five-year through 10-year maturities all saw smaller decreases, with the 10-year ending at 4.60 percent versus 4.62 percent last week.

Looking back 30 days, rates have moved higher across nearly every maturity. The one-year rate jumped 18 basis points from 3.85 percent to 4.03 percent, while the six-month rose 17 basis points to 4.00 percent. The two-year moved from 4.15 to 4.21 percent, and the 30-year climbed from 5.03 to 5.11 percent. The shortest maturities saw more modest increases, with the four-week rate only edging up to 3.72 percent from 3.70 percent.

The curve shape has flattened notably over the past month as short-term rates rose faster than long-term rates. The difference between the one-year and 30-year yields has compressed considerably. The inversion between the two-year and 10-year has moderated compared to recent weeks, while the 20-year and 30-year switched positions, with the 20-year now yielding slightly more than the 30-year. This unusual relationship between the two longest maturities marks a shift from last week when the 30-year yielded one basis point above the 20-year.