Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.79% on Thursday, matching Wednesday's level. Compared to last Thursday, the long end of the curve has shifted lower, with the 30-year down 6 basis points from 4.85%. The 20-year also moved slightly lower over the week, dropping from 4.79% to 4.74%. This stability at the very long end came as shorter maturities saw more action during the session.

Rates rose across nearly the entire curve from Wednesday to Thursday. The short end led the move, with the 4-week bill climbing to 3.75% from 3.72% and the 6-month reaching 3.60% from 3.58%. The 2-year jumped to 3.56% from 3.51%, while the 10-year moved to 4.17% from 4.15%. Every maturity from 4-week out to 30-year posted a gain for the day, pushing rates higher across the board.

Looking back one month to early December, the curve has shifted in interesting ways. Short-term rates have come down noticeably, with the 4-week falling from 3.83% to 3.75% and the 6-month dropping from 3.69% to 3.60%. The 1-year also declined, from 3.60% to 3.54%. In contrast, longer maturities have moved higher over the past month. The 5-year climbed from 3.68% to 3.77%, the 10-year rose from 4.11% to 4.17%, and the 30-year ticked up from 4.76% to 4.79%. The middle portion of the curve, including the 2-year and 3-year, has remained relatively flat over the month.

The curve inversion has eased compared to both last week and a month ago. The 2-year to 10-year spread, which was inverted by 0.70 a week ago, has narrowed to 0.61. The 10-year to 30-year stretch remains inverted at 0.62, though this is tighter than the 0.66 inversion seen last week. The overall shape shows a relatively flat middle section between the 1-year at 3.54% and the 5-year at 3.77%, with rates climbing more steeply beyond the 7-year. Compared to December, the short end has softened while the long end has strengthened slightly, producing a modestly steeper curve from the 5-year onward.