Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.85 percent Thursday, matching last week's level. This suggests stability at the long end of the curve despite some movement in shorter maturities. The yield has remained anchored in this range, showing little change week-over-week for this benchmark maturity.

Most maturities across the curve declined slightly compared to last week. The 2-year yield dropped to 3.53 percent from 3.61 percent, while the 10-year fell to 4.24 percent from 4.26 percent. Shorter-term rates also softened, with the 3-month dipping to 3.67 percent from 3.71 percent and the 1-year sliding to 3.50 percent from 3.53 percent. The 5-year and 7-year maturities both decreased modestly to 3.80 percent and 4.01 percent respectively.

Looking back over the past month, rates have moved higher across most of the curve. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.24 percent from 4.12 percent, representing one of the larger shifts. The 5-year rose to 3.80 percent from 3.66 percent, while the 3-year moved up to 3.63 percent from 3.50 percent. Even the 30-year increased to 4.85 percent from 4.80 percent. The shorter end showed more modest gains, with the 3-month rising to 3.67 percent from 3.62 percent and the 2-year reaching 3.53 percent from 3.46 percent.

The curve maintains its typical upward slope from the 2-year through the 30-year, with yields rising as maturity extends. However, the short end shows an inversion, as the 3-month at 3.67 percent sits above the 1-year at 3.50 percent and the 6-month at 3.62 percent. This short-term inversion contrasts with the positive slope in longer maturities. Comparing to last week, the curve shifted slightly lower across most tenors, while the month-over-month comparison shows an upward shift, particularly in the middle of the curve around the 5-year to 10-year range.