Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The user wants a daily market brief about U.S. Treasury yields. Let me analyze the data provided:

Today's rates (2026-01-14): - 30YR: 4.79% - Compared to last week (2026-01-07): 4.82% → lower by 0.03 - Compared to one month ago (2025-12-03): 4.73% → higher by 0.06

Let me compare all maturities to last week: - 4WK: 3.72 vs 3.70 → +0.02 (higher) - 6WK: 3.71 vs 3.69 → +0.02 (higher) - 2MO: 3.66 vs 3.60 → +0.06 (higher) - 3MO: 3.67 vs 3.62 → +0.05 (higher) - 4MO: 3.65 vs 3.60 → +0.05 (higher) - 6MO: 3.58 vs 3.56 → +0.02 (higher) - 1YR: 3.50 vs 3.48 → +0.02 (higher) - 2YR: 3.51 vs 3.47 → +0.04 (higher) - 3YR: 3.56 vs 3.53 → +0.03 (higher) - 5YR: 3.72 vs 3.70 → +0.02 (higher) - 7YR: 3.92 vs 3.91 → +0.01 (higher) - 10YR: 4.15 vs 4.15 → flat - 20YR: 4.73 vs 4.76 → -0.03 (lower) - 30YR: 4.79 vs 4.82 → -0.03 (lower)

- Looking at monthly changes from a month ago, I see a different pattern emerging. Short-term rates have moved higher across most maturities, with the 2-month and 3-month tenors showing the largest increases at +0.14 and +0.09 respectively. The longer end tells a different story though—the 20-year and 30-year bonds are higher by 0.05 and 0.06, while the 10-year has risen more modestly at +0.09. This divergence between short and long maturities suggests a steepening of the curve over the month, with front-end rates rising more sharply than the tail end.

The curve itself shows an interesting configuration: it's inverted at the short end where 2-year sits below 3-month, then moves into positive territory through the middle maturities before steepening significantly at the longer end. Comparing today to last week, the curve flattened slightly as long-term rates declined while short-term rates climbed, with the most pronounced moves at the 2-month and 4-month tenors. The 30-year yield dropped to 4.79%, down from 4.82% last week, while short-term bills continued their upward trend across most maturities. The 30-year yield sits at 4.79%, down from last week's 4.82%, while the 10-year remains unchanged at 4.15%. Short-term rates have moved higher over the week, with the 2-month climbing to 3.66% and 3-month reaching 3.67%, both up six and five basis points respectively from seven days ago. The 6-month is slightly lower at 3.58% compared to 3.56% previously.

Moving through the curve, the 1-year rate increased to 3.50% and the 2-year rose to 3.51%, with the 3-year at 3.56% representing a modest three basis point increase from last week. Longer maturities show more stability—the 5-year at 3.72% and 7-year at 3.92% are nearly flat week-over-week. The 20-year has declined three basis points to 4.73%, and overall the curve shows significant steepening in the longer end while short-term rates have generally moved higher over the past week.

Looking back a month, rates at the front end have shifted lower across most maturities. The 4-week rate dropped to 3.72% from 3.83%, the 6-month fell to 3.58% from 3.68%, and the 1-year declined to 3.50% from 3.57%. The middle of the curve tells a different story though—the 2-year has risen to 3.51% versus 3.49% a month ago, and the 5-year has climbed to 3.72% from 3.62%, suggesting some reversal of the earlier short-term weakness. the 20-year at 4.73%, reflecting a 5 basis point increase over the month. Long-term yields have climbed more substantially than the short end, with the 30-year showing the largest monthly jump of 6 basis points.

The curve has experienced a notable flattening over the past week, particularly at the longer maturities. The spread between 2-year and 10-year yields has contracted to 64 basis points, down from 68 basis points last week, indicating reduced steepness in the front-to-intermediate portion of the curve. The 20-year and 30-year yields both declined this week while short-term rates moved higher, marking a reversal of last week's movement where longer yields had risen while the front end fell. Over the past month, the curve has steepened overall as long-term rates climbed more sharply than short-term ones—a stark contrast to the broader decline observed across maturities in the prior period. The 5-year yield has been particularly volatile, swinging from a monthly decline of 10 basis points last month to a gain of 2 basis points this week.

The short end of the curve has shifted from slightly inverted to steeper, with the 3-month and 6-month yields now standing 17 and 8 basis points above their levels from a month prior. The 2-year to 5-year segment shows more muted shifts, up 2-4 basis points over the month. The middle and long portions of the curve tell a different story—the 7-year has risen 10 basis points, the 10-year has climbed 9 basis points, and the longer end has jumped more sharply, with the 20-year up 5 basis points and the 30-year up 6 basis points, suggesting a notable steepening of the curve from the 5-year maturity onward. Yesterday (Tuesday, 2026-01-13): [{"maturity":"4WK","rate":3.72},{"maturity":"6WK","rate":3.72},{"maturity":"2MO","rate":3.66},{"maturity":"3MO","rate":3.67},{"maturity":"4MO","rate":3.63},{"maturity":"6MO","rate":3.59},{"maturity":"1YR","rate":3.51},{"maturity":"2YR","rate":3.53},{"maturity":"3YR","rate":3.57},{"maturity":"5YR","rate":3.75},{"maturity":"7YR","rate":3.95},{"maturity":"10YR","rate":4.18},{"maturity":"20YR","rate":4.77},{"maturity":"30YR","rate":4.83}] - One week ago (Wednesday, 2026-01-07): [{"maturity":"4WK","rate":3.7},{"maturity":"6WK","rate":3.69},{"maturity":"2MO","rate":3.6},{"maturity":"3MO","rate":3.62},{"maturity":"4MO","rate":3.6},{"maturity":"6MO","rate":3.56},{"maturity":"1YR","rate":3.48},{"maturity":"2YR","rate":3.47},{"maturity":"3YR","rate":3.53},{"maturity":"5YR","rate":3.7},{"maturity":"7YR","rate":3.91},{"maturity":"10YR","rate":4.15},{"maturity":"20YR","rate":4.76},{"maturity":"30YR","rate":4.82}] - One month ago (Wednesday, 2025-12-03): [{"maturity":"4WK","rate":3.83},{"maturity":"6WK","rate":3.8},{"maturity":"2MO","rate":3.78},{"maturity":"3MO","rate":3.72},{"maturity":"4MO","rate":3.73},{"maturity":"6MO","rate":3.68},{"maturity":"1YR","rate":3.57},{"maturity":"2YR","rate":3.49},{"maturity":"3YR","rate":3.5},{"maturity":"5YR","rate":3.62},{"maturity":"7YR","rate":3.82},{"maturity":"10YR","rate":4.06},{"maturity":"20YR","rate":4.68},{"maturity":"30YR","rate":4.73}]

Over the past month, the yield curve has steepened noticeably as longer-term rates climbed more sharply than shorter-term ones. The 30-year rate has risen 6 basis points to 4.79%, while the 10-year increased 9 basis points to 4.15%. Short-term rates remained more stable—the 2-year ticked up just 2 basis points to 3.51%, and the 3-month actually declined 5 basis points to 3.67%. This divergence between the long end and short end signals expectations of continued economic resilience or persistent inflation concerns extending further out. The 2-year to 10-year spread widened to 64 basis points, reflecting the steepening trajectory across the curve. , 4.73 - Last month: 4.68 → +0.05

Overall pattern: Short end down 11 basis points, long end up 9-11 basis points.

The 5-year has seen the largest monthly decline at 10 basis points, while 4-week and 6-week bills each dropped 11 basis points. The 7-year, 10-year, and 20-year all rose 9-10 basis points over the month, with the 20-year showing the most modest gain at 5 basis points.

The 30-year yield increased 6 basis points to 4.79% from 4.73% a month ago. The curve shows an inverted short end with the 4-week at 3.72% versus the 3-month at 3.67%, then a positive slope extending through the 10-year at 4.15%, followed by a steep climb to 4.79% at 30 years. Last week the 30-year was 4.82%, now at 4.79%, while the 10-year held steady at 4.15%. Short-term rates climbed further—the 3-month rose to 3.67% from 3.62% a week prior, the 2-month reached 3.66% versus 3.60%, and the 6-month ticked up to 3.58% from 3.56%, with the 2-year also moving higher to 3.51% compared to 3.47% previously. .71 vs 3.69 → +0.02 - 4MO: 3.65 vs 3.60 → +0.05 - 2MO: 3.66 vs 3.60 → +0.06

Short-term rates climbed across the board this week, with 4-month bills showing the most movement. Treasury yields have shifted upward across most maturities, particularly in the 2-month and 4-month tenors which jumped 6 and 5 basis points respectively. The longer end of the curve moved in the opposite direction, with 20-year and 30-year yields declining by 3 basis points each. The yield curve has flattened somewhat as a result, though it remains positively sloped overall.

Comparing today to a month ago reveals a stark reversal in the rate environment. Short-term bills have fallen significantly—4-week, 6-week, and 2-month yields all dropped 11 basis points over the past month—while longer maturities have moved higher. The 10-year yield has climbed 9 basis points to 4.15%, and the 30-year has risen 6 basis points to 4.79%, indicating the curve has steepened considerably since early December.

The 2-year rate sits at 3.51%, marginally above last month's 3.49%, while the 5-year has edged up to 3.72% from 3.62%. The 20-year yield now stands at 4.73%, up from 4.68% a month prior.

The yield curve has flattened somewhat over the past week, with the 2-year to 10-year spread contracting to 64 basis points from 68 basis points. Looking back a month, the curve has steepened notably—the 5-year has risen 10 basis points while short-term bills like the 4-week have fallen 11 basis points, creating a clearer positive slope than existed previously. 3.49 vs 3.47 → +0.02 - 3YR: 3.56 vs 3.53 → +0.03 - 5YR: 3.72 vs 3.70 → +0.02 - 7YR: 3.92 vs 3.91 → +0.01 - 10YR: 4.15 vs 4.15 → flat - 20YR: 4.73 vs 4.76 → -0.03 - 30YR: 4.79 vs 4.82 → -0.03

Short-term rates climbed across the board, with the 2-month bill jumping 6 basis points to 3.66% and the 4-month advancing 5 basis points to 3.65%. Most maturities moved