Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.8 percent Monday, down from 4.82 percent Friday. Comparing to one month ago when the 30-year was at 4.84 percent, rates are lower now.

Across the rest of the yield curve Monday, short-term bills were mostly lower compared to Friday. The 3-month rate fell to 3.67 percent from 3.7 percent Friday, while the 6-month edged up slightly to 3.62 percent. The 2-year yield dropped to 3.56 percent from 3.6 percent the previous session. Longer maturities also moved lower, with the 10-year at 4.22 percent and the 20-year at 4.75 percent.

Looking back one month to mid-December, the curve has shifted in notable ways. The 4-week and 1-year rates remained unchanged over that span. Short-term rates like the 3-month and 6-month actually moved higher by small amounts. The most significant changes appeared in the middle portion of the curve, where the 3-year climbed to 3.66 percent from 3.56 percent, and the 5-year rose to 3.82 percent from 3.73 percent. The 7-year moved to 4.02 percent from 3.94 percent. The 10-year increased to 4.22 percent from 4.18 percent a month ago.

The yield curve remains upward sloping but has flattened compared to a month earlier. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year narrowed somewhat as the middle of the curve rose more than the long end. Comparing to last week, rates across most maturities are lower, suggesting a modest decline in yields across the board.