Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield stood at 4.98 percent Thursday, climbing 12 basis points from last week's 4.86 percent. This marks a notable move at the long end of the market. The 20-year rate also rose to 4.99 percent, inching just above the 30-year for the first time in recent comparisons. Investors have watched longer-dated bonds sell off over the past week, pushing yields higher across most maturities.

The broader curve shifted upward this week, with most tenors moving higher compared to Thursday of last week. The 2-year yield rose to 4.14 percent from 4.09 percent, while the 10-year climbed to 4.49 percent from 4.40 percent. The 3-month bill dipped slightly to 3.82 percent from 3.84 percent, one of the few maturities to decline. The short end through 6 months generally held steady or moved modestly higher, creating some tension with the steeper moves at the long end.

Looking back 30 days to late May, the curve has shifted dramatically in shape. The 30-year has fallen from 5.10 percent to 4.98 percent, while the 10-year dropped from 4.57 percent to 4.49 percent. Short-term rates tell a different story, with the 3-month rising from 3.68 percent to 3.82 percent and the 6-month climbing from 3.78 percent to 3.98 percent. The one-year rate sits at 3.96 percent, flat with last week but notably higher than 3.83 percent a month ago.

The curve shows a flattening pattern when comparing today to both last week and one month prior. The 6-month rate at 3.98 percent sits just above the 1-year at 3.96 percent, creating a small inversion in that part of the curve. From the 2-year onward, yields rise steadily through the 20-year maturity. The gap between the 2-year and 30-year has narrowed considerably over the past month as long rates fell while intermediate maturities held relatively steady. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year stands at about 35 basis points today, tighter than the inversion that had characterized the curve in earlier periods.