Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield stands at 4.97 percent today, up from 4.86 percent last week. This marks a notable weekly increase for the longest maturity rate. The 20-year yield also moved to 4.97 percent, matching the 30-year rate exactly.

Across the rest of the curve, yields climbed compared to last week. The 10-year rate rose to 4.48 percent from 4.41 percent, while the 5-year moved to 4.24 percent from 4.17 percent. The 2-year climbed to 4.17 percent from 4.11 percent. Short-term rates showed mixed movement, with the 3-month holding steady at 3.85 percent.

Looking back over the past month, the picture is quite different. The 30-year rate has actually declined from 5.11 percent to 4.97 percent. The 10-year also fell from 4.57 percent to 4.48 percent. However, shorter maturities have moved in the opposite direction. The 2-year rate increased from 4.04 percent to 4.17 percent over the month, while the 3-month rate climbed from 3.65 percent to 3.85 percent.

The yield curve has flattened significantly over the past month as short-term rates rose while long-term rates fell. Currently, the 2-year yield at 4.17 percent sits above the 10-year at 4.48 percent, maintaining an inversion in that segment. The short end of the curve has steepened compared to last week as rates from 2 years out moved higher while the 3-month remained unchanged. The overall curve shape shows a notable compression of yields between the 20-year and 30-year maturities, which are now identical at 4.97 percent.