Treasury Yield Curve Analysis — September 17, 2026

The 30-year Treasury yield stands at 5.29 percent on Thursday, September 17, 2026, down from 5.35 percent yesterday but higher than the 5.37 percent reading one week ago. The long end of the market has held near the 5.3 percent level through the week, moving only a few hundredths of a percentage point in either direction. Today's dip from Wednesday marks the first decline in the 30-year Treasury yield since last Thursday.

Across the broader curve, most maturities are lower today compared to yesterday, with the 10-year Treasury rate at 4.94 percent, down from 5.01 percent. The 2-year Treasury rate sits at 4.67 percent, down from 4.74 percent, while the 1-year rate fell from 4.45 percent to 4.40 percent. Compared to last week, however, shorter maturities are higher, with the 2-year Treasury rate up from 4.56 percent and the 1-year rate up from 4.28 percent. The 10-year Treasury rate is essentially flat versus last week's 4.95 percent, and the 20-year rate eased from 5.39 percent to 5.32 percent.

Over the past month, rates have risen across every maturity. The 2-year Treasury rate is up from 4.25 percent thirty days ago, and the 10-year Treasury rate has climbed from 4.69 percent. The 30-year Treasury yield moved from 5.22 percent to 5.29 percent, while the 1-year rate rose from 4.06 percent to 4.40 percent. Compared to one year ago, today's 10-year Treasury rate is higher than the 4.06 percent recorded on September 17, 2025, and the 30-year Treasury yield is also higher than last year's 4.66 percent.

The Treasury yield curve remains upward sloping from the shortest maturities through 10 years, with the 4-week bill at 3.97 percent and the 10-year at 4.94 percent. The 20-year rate of 5.32 percent sits above the 30-year rate of 5.29 percent, a gap that also existed last week when the two stood at 5.39 percent and 5.37 percent. Thirty days ago the 20-year and 30-year rates were both at 5.22 percent, so the slight inversion between those two maturities appeared over the past month. No other inversions are present on the Treasury yield curve today, the same as last week and thirty days ago.