Treasury Yield Curve Analysis — September 16, 2026

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.35 on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, up from 5.28 one week ago. The 10-year Treasury rate rose to 5.01 from 4.83 over the same period. The 2-year Treasury rate moved higher to 4.74 from 4.43 a week earlier. Short-term rates also climbed, with the 4-week bill at 3.96 compared to 3.81 last Wednesday.

Across the full maturity spectrum, every rate on the Treasury yield curve posted higher levels than one week ago. The 3-month rate moved from 3.95 to 4.14, while the 6-month rate rose from 4.01 to 4.22. The 1-year rate increased from 4.17 to 4.45, and the 5-year rate climbed from 4.61 to 4.86. The 20-year rate edged up from 5.28 to 5.39, while the 30-year rate rose from 5.28 to 5.35.

Over the past 30 days, the 2-year Treasury rate rose from 4.18 to 4.74, a larger move than the 30-year Treasury yield, which went from 5.17 to 5.35. The 10-year Treasury rate increased from 4.63 to 5.01 over the same window. Compared to one year ago, the 10-year rate is higher than the 4.04 level recorded on September 16, 2025, and the 30-year yield is higher than the 4.65 level from that same date. The 4-week bill moved from 3.77 a month ago to 3.96 today.

The Treasury yield curve is upward sloping from the 4-week bill through the 20-year note, with rates rising steadily from 3.96 to 5.39. Two small inversions are present today: the 6-month rate at 4.22 is lower than the 4-month rate at 4.24, and the 30-year yield at 5.35 is lower than the 20-year rate at 5.39. One week ago, the 6-month rate was also below the 4-month rate, and the 20-year and 30-year rates were equal at 5.28. Thirty days ago, the 30-year yield at 5.17 was slightly below the 20-year rate at 5.18, while the 6-month rate at 3.98 was above the 4-month rate at 3.91.