Treasury Yield Curve Analysis — September 10, 2026

The 30-year Treasury yield stands at 5.37 on September 10, 2026, up from 5.25 one week ago. The long end of the market has moved steadily higher over the past several sessions, with the 30-year Treasury yield also rising from 5.28 yesterday. The 20-year maturity sits at 5.39 today, slightly above the 30-year. Short-term bills also edged up, with the 4-week rate at 3.91 compared to 3.83 last Thursday.

Rates rose across every maturity compared to last week, with the largest gains in the middle of the Treasury yield curve. The 2-year Treasury rate climbed to 4.56 from 4.34, the 5-year rate rose to 4.75 from 4.52, and the 7-year rate moved to 4.84 from 4.63. The 10-year Treasury rate increased to 4.95 from 4.77, while the 1-year rate went from 4.11 to 4.28. The shortest maturities saw smaller increases, with the 4-week and 6-week rates up 8 and 11 hundredths respectively.

Over the past month, every rate on the Treasury yield curve is higher than it was on July 30. The biggest monthly moves came in the middle maturities, with the 5-year rate up 37 hundredths from 4.38, the 2-year Treasury rate up 33 hundredths from 4.23, and the 3-year rate up 33 hundredths from 4.30. The 10-year Treasury rate rose 27 hundredths from 4.68 to 4.95. The long end saw more modest gains, with the 20-year rate up 17 hundredths and the 30-year rate up 16 hundredths over the month.

The Treasury yield curve today slopes upward from the 4-week rate at 3.91 through the 20-year rate at 5.39, with the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.37 sitting just below the 20-year. This 20-year above 30-year relationship was also present 30 days ago, when the 20-year stood at 5.22 and the 30-year at 5.21, while one week ago the two maturities were equal at 5.25. A small inversion also appears at the front of the curve, where the 3-month rate at 4.00 sits below the 2-month rate at 4.01, a pattern that held both last week and 30 days ago. Additionally, the 4-month rate at 4.11 is above the 6-month rate at 4.07 today, an inversion that was also present last week but was not present 30 days ago, when the 4-month rate sat below the 6-month rate.