Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.09 percent Thursday, up four basis points from last Thursday's reading of 5.05. This marks the highest level for the long bond in recent comparisons. The 20-year maturity also reached 5.09, matching the 30-year rate exactly. The 10-year yield came in at 4.57, three basis points higher than the 4.54 seen a week ago. The 2-year note held at 4.16, unchanged from last Thursday.

The broader curve showed mixed movement compared to one week ago. The 4-week bill rose to 3.76 from 3.72, while the 6-month slipped to 3.94 from 3.96. The 1-year note came in at 3.99, slightly below last week's 4.02. The 5-year moved to 4.28 from 4.27, and the 7-year climbed to 4.41 from 4.40. The 3-year ticked up to 4.20 from 4.18. Short-term rates of one year and shorter remained below the 4.16 level on the 2-year, keeping that portion of the curve inverted.

Over the past month, rates have moved higher across nearly the entire curve. The 30-year has climbed 12 basis points from 4.97 in early June. The 20-year similarly gained 11 basis points to reach 5.09. The 10-year rose to 4.57 from 4.47, a move of 10 basis points. The 5-year moved to 4.28 from 4.18, and the 2-year reached 4.16 from 4.05. The short end also shifted upward, with the 3-month at 3.84 compared to 3.78 one month ago, and the 1-year at 3.99 versus 3.82. The most dramatic monthly change occurred at the very front of the curve, where the 2-month rate jumped to 3.81 from 3.70.

The curve remains inverted between the 1-year and 2-year maturities, with the 2-year at 4.16 sitting above the 1-year at 3.99. That inversion has deepened compared to last week when the gap was 14 basis points, and it has widened further from one month ago when the spread was 23 basis points. The curve slopes upward from the 4-week level of 3.76 through the 1-year at 3.99 and continues rising through the longer maturities to reach 5.09 at both the 20 and 30-year points. The long end has flattened significantly compared to last week, when the 20-year sat three basis points below the 30-year. The overall curve sits higher than it did a month ago, and the front end from 4-week to 1-year has steepened, with that segment now spanning 23 basis points versus 11 basis points five weeks ago.