Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury rate sits at 5.05 percent, up from 4.91 percent one week ago. That represents the largest weekly gain among the longest maturities, with the 20-year rate also climbing to 5.05 from 4.93 last Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year yield moved to 4.55 from 4.44 over the same period. Overall, the long end of the curve has shifted notably higher in the past week.

The broader curve shows increases across most maturities compared to last Tuesday. The 1-year rate rose to 4.06 from 3.98, while the 2-year moved to 4.19 from 4.14. The 5-year climbed to 4.27 from 4.19, and the 7-year reached 4.40 from 4.30. The short end held relatively steady, with the 3-month rate at 3.86 and the 6-month at 3.99, both nearly unchanged from last week.

Looking back 30 days to late May, the curve has shifted higher across all maturities. The most pronounced moves occurred at the front end, where the 3-month rate climbed to 3.86 from 3.68 and the 6-month rose to 3.99 from 3.80. The 1-year rate increased to 4.06 from 3.82. In contrast, longer-term rates moved more modestly, with the 10-year at 4.55 versus 4.50 a month ago, and the 30-year inching up only slightly to 5.05 from 5.03.

The curve today maintains its typical upward slope, rising from 3.69 percent at the very short end to 5.05 percent at 30 years. One notable development is that the 30-year rate now matches the 20-year rate exactly at 5.05 percent, erasing the small premium that long-term bonds typically carry. The 2-year and 3-year rates are nearly identical at 4.19 and 4.18, a much tighter spread than the 13 basis point gap seen last week. Compared to one month ago, the front end has risen significantly more than the back end, steepening the overall curve shape.