Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield stands at 4.87 percent Friday, ticking up slightly from 4.86 percent Thursday. This marks a notable decline from one month ago when the same maturity sat at 5.12 percent. The long end of the curve has moved substantially lower over the past four weeks, providing some relief for borrowers and indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding longer-term economic conditions.

The broader curve shows yields generally holding steady or moving modestly lower across most maturities compared to Thursday. The 2-year yield fell to 4.07 percent from 4.09 percent, while the 5-year dropped to 4.12 percent from 4.15 percent. The 10-year yield settled at 4.38 percent, down two hundredths from 4.40 percent the previous day. Short-term rates in the 3-month to 6-month range held between 3.83 and 3.94 percent, showing minimal day-to-day movement. The 20-year yield remained unchanged at 4.87 percent, matching the 30-year maturity.

Looking back 30 days to mid-May, the entire curve has shifted downward noticeably. The 10-year yield has fallen from 4.59 percent to 4.38 percent over the past month. Medium-term maturities like the 5-year dropped from 4.26 percent, while the 7-year moved from 4.43 percent. Even shorter-term yields have declined, with the 1-year falling from 3.82 percent and the 6-month sliding from 3.77 percent. The long end saw the most dramatic moves, with both the 20-year and 30-year yields falling roughly a quarter of a percentage point from their levels four weeks prior.

The curve maintains its traditional upward slope from short to long maturities. Yields rise from 3.7 percent at the shortest end through to 4.87 percent at the longest maturities. The spread between the 3-month and 10-year stands at about half a percentage point, representing a normal positive slope. Compared to one month ago, the curve has flattened somewhat, as longer-term yields fell more sharply than shorter-term ones. The 30-year is now 1.04 percentage points above the 3-month rate, narrower than the 1.43-point spread seen in mid-May. No inversions exist anywhere along the curve, with each successive maturity yielding higher than the previous one.