Treasury Yield Curve Analysis

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.86% today, down from 4.93% one week ago, marking a notable decline over the weekly period. This rate has fallen 17 basis points compared to where it stood a month ago at 5.03%. The drop over the past week represents one of the more significant moves seen at the long end of the curve recently.

Looking at the broader curve, most maturities from the 2-year out to the 30-year moved lower this week. The 5-year saw the steepest decline, falling 10 basis points from 4.27% last Wednesday to 4.17% today. The 2-year, 3-year, 7-year, 10-year, and 20-year all dropped between 7 and 9 basis points. Short-term rates held relatively steady, with the 4-week rate edging down 2 basis points and the 1-year actually ticking up 1 basis point.

Comparing today to one month ago reveals a more complex picture. The 30-year and 20-year have both declined significantly, each falling 17 basis points from 5.03% to their current levels. The 10-year is down 5 basis points over the same period. However, short-term rates have moved higher over the month. The 3-month rate has climbed from 3.69% to 3.85%, a 16 basis point increase, while the 6-month rose from 3.77% to 3.95%. The 1-year is up 20 basis points from 3.79% to 3.99%.

The curve shape has shifted in notable ways. Today the 30-year at 4.86% sits below the 20-year at 4.87%, a reversal from last week when the 30-year was trading above the 20-year. The 10-year at 4.41% remains below the 30-year, maintaining an inversion in that segment of the curve. The 10-year to 2-year spread is now 30 basis points, compared to 29 basis points last week and 48 basis points inverted one month ago, showing gradual steepening in that portion of the curve despite remaining inverted.